Why Bitcoin Price Is Up

LeeMaimai

/Oct 14, 2025

Key Takeaways

• The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has created consistent demand and improved market access.

• Bitcoin's halving event reduces new supply, impacting the long-term balance of supply and demand.

• Macro conditions, including interest rates and liquidity, significantly influence Bitcoin's price movements.

• Regulatory clarity is fostering institutional participation and reducing operational risks.

• Self-custody with hardware wallets is essential for secure asset management in volatile markets.

Bitcoin has climbed meaningfully in 2024–2025, drawing fresh attention from retail participants and institutional investors alike. Beyond the headline moves, there are structural forces at work: persistent spot ETF demand, programmatic supply reductions from the halving, improving macro liquidity expectations, and maturing regulation. This article breaks down the key drivers behind the rally, the risks to watch, and how to position securely.

The Spot ETF Effect: Structural Demand, Real-Time Flows

The advent of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 transformed market access, enabling traditional portfolios to allocate via regulated products. These vehicles aggregate demand daily and buy Bitcoin on the open market, creating a consistent bid that can outpace organic seller supply.

For a consolidated view of net creations and redemptions, the widely referenced flows dashboard maintained by Farside provides daily updates on spot Bitcoin ETF activity, helping investors contextualize momentum and potential supply absorption. See the latest data via the Farside Bitcoin ETF flows page at the end of each section: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows summary.
For background on the product category and the path to approval, this overview captures the history and global distribution of Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.

ETF inflows matter because they are a recurring, rules-based source of demand. Unlike discretionary traders, ETFs purchase and custody underlying Bitcoin to match investor subscriptions. Over time, this mechanically reduces liquid supply and can amplify price moves when spot markets are thin.

Halving: Programmatic Supply Cuts

Bitcoin’s monetary policy is coded, not negotiated. Roughly every four years, the block subsidy halves, reducing the rate of new issuance. The most recent halving in April 2024 cut the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. As issuance declines, the net new supply available to meet demand shrinks, and incremental buyers must coax coins from long-term holders at higher prices.

A concise technical overview and historical context can be found here: Bitcoin halving.

This supply-side reduction doesn’t guarantee immediate upside—markets often price in expectations—but it changes the long-run balance of supply and demand. Combined with steady ETF purchases, fewer new coins entering circulation can set the stage for tighter markets.

Macro Tailwinds: Rates, Liquidity, and Risk Appetite

Crypto is not immune to macro conditions. Expectations for interest rate trajectories and liquidity affect risk premiums across asset classes, including Bitcoin.

Track market-implied rate expectations through the CME FedWatch Tool, which maps probabilities of upcoming FOMC decisions based on fed funds futures: CME FedWatch Tool.
Inflation dynamics also inform risk appetite and real yield considerations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides official CPI data and methodology: U.S. CPI overview.

When markets anticipate easing financial conditions or stabilizing inflation, investors often rotate toward growth and alternative assets. Bitcoin can benefit as a liquid, globally tradable asset with a clear issuance schedule and expanding institutional access. Conversely, sharp shifts in rates, inflation surprises, or dollar strength can temporarily pressure the market—one reason to watch macro calendars closely.

On-Chain and Market Structure: Resilience and Maturation

Under the hood, Bitcoin’s network remains robust. Hash rate—an indicator of the aggregate computational power securing the network—has trended higher even after the halving, reflecting capital investment and confidence among miners:

Historical hash rate data and charts: Blockchain.com hash rate.

Higher hash rate generally implies greater security and miner competition. While the halving reduces block rewards, the network has continued to attract hashrate as miners optimize fleets, secure cheaper energy, and capitalize on rising transaction fee dynamics.

More broadly, the trading infrastructure around Bitcoin—spot exchanges, regulated ETFs, futures listed on major venues—has matured. Price discovery across regulated and crypto-native platforms has improved, basis and funding rates are more closely monitored, and liquidity is deeper during most hours. These changes reduce the odds that isolated pockets of volatility spiral, even though crypto’s inherent risk remains high.

Regulation: Clearer Rules Are Unlocking Capital

Regulatory clarity has expanded across major jurisdictions, providing pathways for institutions to participate while maintaining compliance. In the European Union, the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework is phasing in rules on issuance, stablecoins, and service providers, which will harmonize standards across member states:

Official overview of MiCA from the European Commission: MiCA framework.

As consistent standards emerge, fiduciaries are more comfortable managing operational and legal risk. Clear rules don’t eliminate market risk, but they reduce the uncertainty premium that kept some institutions on the sidelines.

Technology and New Narratives

Beyond price, Bitcoin’s technical and cultural landscape continues to evolve. Innovation at the edges—whether in inscription protocols, new token standards, or layer-2 scaling—can pull fresh devs and users into the ecosystem, boosting fees and miner income, and broadening Bitcoin’s perceived utility.

For a primer on inscriptions and numbering mechanics, see the public documentation: Ordinals docs.
A technical introduction to the Runes protocol, launched around the 2024 halving to streamline fungible token issuance on Bitcoin, is available here: What are Runes?.

While Bitcoin’s core value proposition remains sound money with predictable issuance, these adjacent developments can stimulate on-chain activity, contribute to fee markets, and sustain miner economics post-halving—all supportive for long-term network health.

What Could Change the Trend: Key Risks

Even strong uptrends face setbacks. Consider these watchpoints:

ETF Flow Reversals: Consistent inflows have been a tailwind. Material redemptions or a pause in institutional allocations could dampen momentum. Reference daily flows to gauge changes: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Macro Shocks: Hotter-than-expected inflation, policy surprises, or liquidity tightening can compress risk-taking quickly. Keep an eye on policy dates via the CME FedWatch Tool and CPI releases via the BLS CPI calendar.
Regulatory Actions: Enforcement developments or new restrictions in major markets can impact sentiment. The EU’s phased adoption of MiCA is a positive example of clarity, but the global picture remains dynamic.
Miner Stress: If transaction fee revenue lulls while price consolidates, marginal miners could face pressure. Track network security with the hash rate chart and watch for signs of miner capitulation during sharp drawdowns.

How to Position Securely: A Case for Self-Custody

Rising prices draw participation, but they also raise the stakes for operational security. Regardless of whether you buy through exchanges, ETFs, or OTC desks, the most robust way to maintain control over your assets is self-custody with a hardware wallet. A well-designed device keeps private keys offline, supports verified transaction workflows, and integrates with wallets you already use.

If you are considering upgrading your setup, OneKey focuses on:

Open-source security: Transparent firmware and reproducible builds that can be inspected and verified.
Strong key protection: Secure element architecture with battle-tested signing and passphrase support.
Practical UX: Multi-chain support, clear signing prompts, and compatibility with popular software wallets for seamless daily use.
Advanced features: Coin control, PSBT workflows, and options for air-gapped operation to minimize attack surface.

In fast-moving markets, custody mistakes are often permanent. A hardware wallet helps you separate market risk (price volatility) from operational risk (key compromise), giving you confidence to hold through cycles.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s latest upswing isn’t just a speculation wave—it’s a confluence of structural demand from spot ETFs, slowing issuance from the halving, improving macro expectations, maturing market plumbing, and clearer regulation. None of these eliminates volatility, but together they support a healthier, more resilient market.

Stay informed with reliable data, respect the risks, and secure your assets appropriately. For many participants, self-custody with a hardware wallet like OneKey is a practical step toward maintaining control while participating in the next phase of Bitcoin’s evolution.

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